Impact mechanism of carbon tax on carbon emission reduction based on progressive motivation decomposition

Abstract

[Objective] Aiming to clarify the specific emission reduction mechanism of carbon tax, give full play to its emission reduction function, and promote the construction of carbon emission reduction policy system. [Methods] A coupled model of computable general equilibrium (CGE) and structural path decomposition (SPD) was developed to identify the key emission reduction paths of carbon taxes, and the drivers promoting emission reduction on each path were decomposed and analyzed. [Results] The results show that the indirect emission reduction triggered by the industrial chain accounts for 80.77% of the total emission reduction from the carbon tax, and the emission reduction effect of the carbon tax will gradually diminish with the increase of the production level. The energy efficiency effect is the most important driver of carbon tax for emission reduction, and the role of different drivers varies across production levels and on different emission reduction paths. The key industries such as heavy industry, thermal power industry and coal industry providing the main carbon reduction contribution. Fixed capital formation contributes the most to carbon reduction and mainly achieves carbon emission reduction through the path of influencing the construction industry’s demand for upstream energy- intensive industries. [Conclusion] Therefore, the driving force mechanism of each key factor on carbon emission reduction at different production levels and paths of carbon tax should be fully grasped and utilized, the emission reduction potential of key links in the industrial chain should also be fully explored, and targeted measures should be taken to promote synergistic emission reduction among industries.