Modular neural networks with fully convolutional networks for typhoon-induced short-term rainfall predictions

Abstract

Taiwan is located at the edge of the northwestern Pacific Ocean and within a typhoon zone. After typhoons are generated, strong winds and heavy rains come to Taiwan and cause major natural disasters. This study employed fully convolutional networks (FCNs) to establish a forecast model for predicting the hourly rainfall data during the arrival of a typhoon. An FCN is an advanced technology that can be used to perform the deep learning of image recognition through semantic segmentation. FCNs deepen the neural net layers and perform upsampling on the feature map of the final convolution layer. This process enables FCN models to restore the size of the output results to that of the raw input image. In this manner, the classification of each raw pixel becomes feasible. The study data were radar echo images and ground station rainfall information for typhoon periods during 2013–2019 in southern Taiwan. Two model cases were designed. The ground rainfall image-based FCN (GRI_FCN) involved the use of the ground rain images to directly forecast the ground rainfall. The GRI combined with rain retrieval image-based modular convolutional neural network (GRI-RRI_MCNN) involved the use of radar echo images to determine the ground rainfall before the prediction of future ground rainfall. Moreover, the RMMLP, a conventional multilayer percep-tron neural network, was used to a benchmark model. Forecast horizons varying from 1 to 6 h were evaluated. The results revealed that the GRI-RRI_MCNN model enabled a complete understanding of the future rainfall variation in southern Taiwan during typhoons and effectively improved the accuracy of rainfall forecasting during typhoons.