Sensitivity of air pollution-induced premature mortality to precursor emissions under the influence of climate change

Abstract

The relative contributions of PM2.5 and ozone precursor emissions to air pollution-related premature mortality modulated by climate change are estimated for the U.S. using sensitivities of air pollutants to precursor emissions and health outcomes for 2001 and 2050. Result suggests that states with high emission rates and significant premature mortality increases induced by PM2.5 will substantially benefit in the future from SO2, anthropogenic NOX and NH3 emissions reductions while states with premature mortality increases induced by O3 will benefit mainly from anthropogenic NOX emissions reduction. Much of the increase in premature mortality expected from climate changeinduced pollutant increases can be offset by targeting a specific precursor emission in most states based on the modeling approach followed here. © 2010 by the authors.