Dealing with uncertainty in the analysis and reporting of MCDA

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to provide guidance regarding the various types and sources of uncertainty that influence the outcome of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) model. For each MCDA step, i.e., structuring, scoring, weighting, and aggregating, we will describe sources of uncertainty and point to methods to deal with these uncertainties. Also the use of sensitivity analyses and the relevance of qualifying and quantifying uncertainty in MCDA will be discussed. The consideration of uncertainty is a difficult but important balancing act between capturing the complex uncertainties of the decision and keeping the MCDA comprehensible for decision makers.