Application of conditional geostatistical simulation to calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes belonging to a seismic series

Abstract

Geostatistics offers various techniques of estimation and simulation that have been satisfactorily applied in solving geological problems. In this sense, conditional geostatistical simulation is applied to calculate the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with a lower than or equal magnitude to one determined during a seismic series. It is possible to calculate the energy of the next most probable earthquake from a specific time, given knowledge of the structure existing among earthquakes occurring prior to a specific moment.