Evaluation method of robustness for train schedules

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the qualitative and quantitative characteristics that robust train schedules should have. The method we propose to evaluate the robustness of train schedules has two main characteristics; one is a focus on passenger disutility, and the other involves the development of a probabilistic model for the statistical evaluation of train operations. To calculate the robustness indices, we applied a Monte Carlo simulation method that performs iterative train-passenger simulations. We then carried out simulation experiments using actual data to calculate the robustness indices for two train schedules, and compared the results.