The incorporation of extreme drought events improves models for beech persistence at its distribution limit

Abstract

•Context: Projections of species distribution models under future climate are usually based on long-term averages. However, singular extreme drought events presumably contribute to the shaping of distribution limits at the retreating low-elevation xeric limits. •Methods: The objectives of this study were to set up a distribution model based on extreme drought events (EDM), which uses sanitary logging information as a proxy of vitality response of beech, and compare it with the results of classical species distribution models (SDMs). •Results: Predictions of the EDM for 2025 were in agreement with those of the SDM, but EDM predicted a more serious decline in all regions of Hungary towards the end of the century. •Conclusion: These results suggest that the predicted increase in frequency and severity of drought events may further limit the distribution of beech in the future. © 2013 INRA and Springer-Verlag France.