The Use of the Adoption Prediction Outcome Tool to Help Communities Improve the Transition Towards the Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions

Abstract

There is a general trend of increasing urban population in cities worldwide in the coming decades, leading to an intensification of urban environmental impacts as well as the probability of cities becoming vulnerable to climate change impacts. In this sense, it is essential to increase their resilience, to better cope with climate change effects. A strategy that allows taking common measures of adaptation and mitigation approaches is the implementation of nature-based solutions (NBS). However, its level of success in urban communities depends on a series of factors related to their level and time of adoption. This study adjusts the Adoption Prediction Outcome Tool (ADOPT) to the case of NBS, as to evaluate the potential level of adoption and rate of diffusion of NBS. To test the adaptation and application of this tool, the potential for implementation of green roofs in the city of Eindhoven (Netherlands) was used as a case study. Stakeholder workshops with participants from academia and local governments were held to apply ADOPT and discuss results. It is shown that the potential level of adoption of green roofs varies between 12% and 68%, while the rate of diffusion varies between 16 and 19 years. The level of adoption could be significantly improved by enhancing the relative advantage of green roofs, while the rate of diffusion is relatively robust and, thus, difficult to improve upon.