Species distribution modelling sheds light on the widespread distribution of Sphingonotus (Sphingonotus) rubescens (Orthoptera: Acrididae: Oedipodinae)

Abstract

Sphingonotus (Sphingonotus) rubescens (Walker, 1870) occurs from the Atlantic Islands to central and southern Asia, but its ecological preferences and the potential drivers that shaped its currently extensive distribution remain unknown. We review the known occurrence data for S. rubescens and reconstruct its current and palaeoclimatic niche (Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene) using species distribution modelling (SDM). We examine how climatic suitability might have created potential past migratory pathways shaping its current distribution. Moreover, we test the utility of SDM approaches to flag dubious records detected in the assembled dataset. The results reveal new distributional records from four countries. Climatic models indicate high levels of overlap between current and palaeoclimatic models, with stability of large suitable areas through time. Furthermore, we observe that suitability values associated with dubious records are lower than the distribution of suitability values within the known distribution of S. rubescens. Climatic stability of suitable areas through time for S. rubescens might have aided the expansion and maintenance of its current wide distribution. Furthermore, our results support previous studies indicating the usefulness of SDM tools for the detection of doubious occurrences.