Modelling Mortality Using Life Trajectories of Disabled and Non-Disabled Individuals in Nineteenth-Century Sweden

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate how disabilities and the experiences of work and family during early adulthood affected subsequent mortality in nineteenth century Sundsvall, Sweden. To achieve this, sequence analysis and event history analyses are combined, using digitised parish registers from nineteenth-century Sweden. First, occurrence and type of disability, noted at latest on their 15th birthday, is recorded. Second, life trajectories are analysed using sequence analysis between ages 15 and 33 in order to determine homogeneous groups, given their experience of work and family in their early adulthood. Important demographic events that occur in the life of young adults—first occupation, first marriage and first child—are recorded yearly and cause the person’s trajectory to change state. Third, the groups derived are used as explanatory variables in combination with disability and other variables in Cox regressions with mortality as outcome. The individuals are followed from their 33rd birthday as long as the registers permit and it is noted if the period ends with death or if the observation is censored. The main findings are that the groups found for men are significantly associated with mortality and that mentally disabled women seem to have excess mortality. They also show that sequence analysis can be a valuable tool in summarising individuals’ life paths for use in subsequent analysis.