Purpose: To investigate how missing data (Missing Completely at Random [MCAR] vs. Missing Not at Random [MNAR]) on risk factors can impact trajectory solutions (i.e., latent class probabilities) and coefficient estimates capturing the relationship between covariates and trajectory group solutions using a semiparametric group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) approach. Methods: To address this issue, we conducted a systematic investigation using Monte Carlo simulation. Data were generated from a population with known growth parameters and risk factors. Observations for risk factors were then systematically deleted in a way that reflects key missing data assumptions (MCAR and MNAR). Models were then estimated to test the sensitivity of the estimates to each missing data scenario. Results: Two key findings emerged: (1) trajectory solutions were largely unaffected by missing data on risk factors; and, (2) there was some degree of bias in estimating relationships between risk factors and trajectory group membership when data were missing on those risk factors. Conclusions: GBTM may be useful for testing etiological explanations of long-term patterns of offending. Missing data on risk factors poses a threat to this approach, however.
CITATION STYLE
Ray, J. V., Sullivan, C. J., Loughran, T. A., & Jones, S. E. (2018). The Impact of Missing Risk Factor Data on Semiparametric Group-Based Trajectory Models. Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology, 4(3), 276–296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40865-018-0085-x
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