What drives local currency bond market development in Saudi Arabia: do macroeconomic and institutional factors matter?

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to empirically determine which factors are related to the development of local-currency bond market (LCBM) in Saudi Arabia over the period 1990–2019. Using ARDL modeling, the results reveal long-run cointegrating relationships between LCBM capitalization and macroeconomic, financial, and institutional factors. Unlike institutional ones, macroeconomic and financial factors seem to matter more in developing LCBM in the short run. However, in the long run, larger economic size more government spending, low inflation levels, broader and deeper banking system, higher bureaucratic quality, and better investment profile, all play a crucial role in the determination of Saudi LCBM. Policy implications include measures toward sound macroeconomic fundamentals, broad and deep banking system, efficient stock market, and high-quality governance institutions.