Assessment of Dynamic Bayesian Models for Gas Turbine Diagnostics, Part 1: Prior Probability Analysis

Abstract

The reliability and cost-effectiveness of energy conversion in gas turbine systems are strongly dependent on an accurate diagnosis of possible process and sensor anomalies. Because data collected from a gas turbine system for diagnosis are inherently uncertain due to measurement noise and errors, probabilistic methods offer a promising tool for this problem. In particular, dynamic Bayesian networks present numerous advantages. In this work, two Bayesian networks were developed for compressor fouling and turbine erosion diagnostics. Different prior probability distributions were compared to determine the benefits of a dynamic, first-order hierarchical Markov model over a static prior probability and one dependent only on time. The influence of data uncertainty and scatter was analyzed by testing the diagnostics models on simulated fleet data. It was shown that the condition-based hierarchical model resulted in the best accuracy, and the benefit was more significant for data with higher overlap between states (i.e., for compressor fouling). The improvement with the proposed dynamic Bayesian network was 8 percentage points (in classification accuracy) for compressor fouling and 5 points for turbine erosion compared with the static network.