Prospects for ASEAN-China free trade area: A qualitative and quantitative analysis

Abstract

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA), which is set to come into effect around 2010. ACFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors: ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether ACFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding ACFTA's prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China. © 2009 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.