Brazilian Regional Leadership Revisited: Testing the Long-Term Determinants of South American Followership (1995–2015)

Abstract

Over the last twenty years, Brazil has staked successive claims to regional leadership, with varying explicitness and unclear success. What factors explain the acceptance or rejection of such claims by South American countries? This article summarises the literature on regional powers and frames regional powerhood as arising from geographical belonging, resources, and will to lead; and leadership/followership as stemming from exclusivity, hierarchy/influence, consensus, and provision. By analysing panel data on Brazil and South America from 1995 to 2015, the study concludes that Brasilia enjoyed higher followership in situations characterised by high exclusivity and consensus, and low hierarchy and provision. These conditions were present in South America in the 1990s, thus rendering that decade more receptive to Brazilian leadership.