Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM

Abstract

Projections of the potential impacts of global warming on regional TC activity are important for estimations of potential future socio-economic losses. However, projected changes in the TC genesis number have varied considerably, especially at the Ocean-basin scale (Knutson et al., 2010). This inconsistency among projections arises from a number of factors, including differences in assumed spatial patterns of future changes in sea surface temperature (SST), differences in model physical parameterizations, differences in the chosen global warming scenario, and differences in the methods used to detect TCs. In this study, we conduct ensemble projections that consider differences in both tropical spatial patterns of SST changes and model physics, particularly the cumulus parameterization scheme to investigate future changes in TC activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO).