Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops in Turkey Using a Statistical Approach

Abstract

In this study, simulation data set from ENSEMBLE project is used to set up a statistical model to estimate the yield of crops according to climatic variables and conditions. We chose fig as an example crop. Fig is grown around Aydın in Turkey. The number of days above 40 C between June and October, the number of days below À1 C between October and November, the mean of the maximum air temperature between June and September, the mean of minimum air temperature between October and November, annual total precipitation amount, annual mean of relative humidity and annual mean of cloud cover in that region are chosen as independent variables for multiple regression to estimate yield of fig for the period 1991-2000.