STOCK MARKETS, VOLATILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

This study examines in one hand the relationship between stock market return volatility and economic growth, and, in the other one, how stock market development can influence economic growth. The methods used in this paper are Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) framework to apprehend return volatility and VAR framework to capture any link between stock market and economic growth. Time series quarterly data used are from 2000 to 2015 for both Nigeria and Ivory Coast and from 2008 to 2015 for Cameroon. The study reveals that: 1) DSX results are not significant causing economic growth, neither the converse, showing how desperately Cameroon market needs to be boosted if the country wishes to reach an acceptable economic situation in 2035. The study also reveals, 2) none significant causality link going from stock market development to GDP in Ivory Coast and Nigeria; it also found that, 3) main macroeconomic variables influencing (or influenced by) stock market are Inflation and Money supply. The research finally reveals that, 4) NSE is more volatile than BRVM or DSX.