China's Monetary Policy Communication: Frameworks, Impact, and Recommendations

Abstract

货币基金组织工作文件描述了作者进行的研究，并发表这些论文以引起评论和鼓励辩论。货币基金组织工作文件中表达的观点是作者的观点，不一定代表货币基金组织、其执行局或货币基金组织管理层的意见。摘要 金融市场渴望中国人民银行（PBC）发出任何货币政策信号。随着中国继续开放金融体系和开放经济，有效的货币政策沟通的重要性只会增加。本文论述了中国独特的机构设置，并实证分析了中国人民银行主要传播渠道（包括新颖的沟通渠道）对金融市场的影响。结果表明，进展显著，但PBC通信仍在向其他主要经济体的水平发展。文件建议可以迅速采取的中期政策改革和改革。IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. Abstract Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy. This paper discusses the country's unique instituitional setup and empirically analyzes the impact on financial markets of the PBC's main communication channels, including a novel communication channel. The results suggest that there has been signifcant progress but that PBC communication is still evolving toward the level of other major economies. The paper recommends medium-term policy reforms and reforms that can be adopted quickly. JEL Classification Numbers: E58; E52; E48.