Surprising Scenarios. Imagination as a Dimension of Foresight

Abstract

This paper explores two ways to integrate more imagination into foresight studies: through the use of wild cards and through the utilization of science fiction. Both follow the principle of “What if…” and both are aimed at imagining surprising events or developments. In both cases, thought experiment starts with an assumption – the invented wild card or the novum of science fiction (element of difference to our real world) and searches for possible implications. Foresight needs neither pure daydreaming, nor incoherent fantasies, but – paradoxically – stringent, methodologically controlled kinds of imagination. With this background, differences and commonalities of science fiction and foresight are discussed. Whilst the science fiction writer often indulges himself in an excess of imagination, futures studies often lack it. Two EU projects – IKNOW and FESTOS – are taken as examples for the methodological integration of collective and individual imagination within foresight processes. Putting wild cards or science fiction ideas into context implies to fathom plausible social, political, economical, and cultural consequences, counter-intuitive findings and surprises included.