Assessing and Forecasting Carbon Stock Variations in Response to Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Central Aceh, Indonesia

Abstract

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by rapid urbanization and land use policies can result in changes in carbon stocks. The study conducted in the region of Central Aceh (TCAR) aims to 1) identify the pattern of LULC change in TCAR 2001-2019 and make predictions of its changes in 2039 using the CA-Markov simulation, and 2) quantify changes in carbon stocks in the region in 2001-2019 and their predicted changes in 2039. This study uses Landsat 5 (2001), Landsat 7 (2009) and Landsat 8 OLI /TIRS (2019) satellite imagery, which is classified into six LULC categories using the supervised classification method. The 2001-2019 LULC map from the classification results was then tested for accuracy. The CA-Markov model was used to predict LULC changes and to obtain carbon stock values related to changes in LULC patterns. This study provides a new understanding of changes in LULC and their impact on carbon stocks, where LULC changes result in a decrease in carbon stocks, and will continue to decrease in 2039, along with the continued decline in forest area. These findings can be valuable information for policymakers in determining the appropriate spatial configuration in the future, which places more emphasis on increasing nature and environmental conservation, to mitigate climate change, a healthy environment, and provide comfort for the community.