Issues of heat supply quality improvement based on ambient air temperature forecasts and account of the heat supply system particularity

Abstract

The paper studies the issues of temperature regimes selection of the heat supply system operation through the shared use of the heat transfer medium, which is heated in the central boiler plant, by a group of consumers. They have different levels of heat consumption with various ways of their connection (directly or through heat exchangers) under the conditions of their variable amount of return heat to the system. The purpose of the work is to develop a technique of the model development for the temperature condition control of a heat supply system, which helps to minimize the temperature deviation from standard temperature under conditions of outdoor air temperature change and inertia of the controlled object. For the achievement of the target goal, the paper suggests an approach based on the use of statistical models and forecasts in control tasks on the base of the optimality criterion. The outcome of using the approach proposed in the article is a model that allows you to determine amount of thermal energy that should be produced to maintain the target temperature values in heating circuits of the district heating system.