Historical Estimates

Abstract

In this chapter, we consider methods that can be used to estimate populations at past points in time. Our focus is on the near past rather than the distant past. By this we mean that we primarily examine methods that can be used for inter-censal estimates in areas that have adequate census and vital statistics coverage, but for which there are historical gaps. An example of such a gap would be that if one wants to know the population of the state of Washington in 1938, one must turn to an estimation method. The state has good census (and vital statistics coverage), and its state demographic center started producing annual state level estimates in 1944 (State of Washington, 1944). However, there was neither a census conducted in 1938 nor was there an estimate made by either the state’s demographic center or the US Census Bureau (Shryock and Lawrence, 1949).