Trend scanning, scouting and foresight techniques

Abstract

Corporate foresight comprises all activities that are aimed at identifying changes on the basis of early signals in trends, creating a consolidated future outlook, and using these insights into the future in ways useful to the organization. These activities include developing a strategy, creating innovations, managing risk, and exploring new markets. The author identifies five challenges that companies may face when developing corporate foresight, which include the detection of signals that yield a competitive advantage, the detection of change when terminology is unclear, and the selection of an appropriate foresight method as well as the successful use of foresight methods in the highly iterative front end of innovation. Monitoring and scanning are two ways of conducting the search, with intelligent data mining and scouting networks as possible approaches. Foresight methods can be divided into methods suitable for exploring the future on the market side and methods more suitable for the technology aspect. Thinking in scenarios is a good choice when direction and rate of change are unknown.