Economic Context and Attitudes towards the Welfare State: The Relationship between (Perceived) Unemployment Risk and Demand for Social Policy

Abstract

Welfare states provide individuals with an insurance against a variety of risks. Therefore, how much an individual is exposed to these risks is expected to influence their support for social spending. In this chapter, we focus on the evolution of perceived unemployment risk and its relationship with attitudes towards social policy in Switzerland over the 1999–2014 period. Aggregate analyses of data from the Swiss Household Panel reveal a slight increase in the share of Swiss residents who feel insecure. However, this trend coincides with a decrease in aggregate support for social spending, whereas the share of respondents supporting higher taxation for the rich has seen a marginal increase. At the individual-level, we do find some evidence for a link between objective unemployment risk, the perception of this risk, and support for unemployment benefits. But the relation between objective risk and policy preferences is mainly explained by structural factors such as education and income rather than the perception of risk. These findings can help explain the relative stability of public opinion despite changes in economic conditions.