Model of land cover change with cellular automata, Mataram city, West Nusa Tenggara

Abstract

Along with the increase of population, the needs for space for agriculture, settlement, infrastructure, and industry are increasing. It affects the extent to the availability and sustaining human needs. The objectives of this research are: (1) to analyze land cover change in Mataram in 2008, 2013, and 2017, (2) to predict land cover in 2031 in Mataram using Cellular Automata spatial modeling. The Method used to predict land cover changes is by modeling Cellular Automata. Driving factors used in this research, are: slope, elevation, distance from roads, distance from the river, distance from shoreline, and distance from the central government. From 2008 to 2017 Mataram had a significant decrease of agricultural land area by (-)12,63% and the increase of the land and settlement building by 26,35%. The result of land cover prediction of 2031 shows agricultural area reduce by (-)15,18% and sharp increase in built and settlement area by 20,52%.