Impact of Monetary Policy on Inflation and Investment in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Purpose: This study aims to explore the impact of monetary policy on inflation and investment in Pakistan. Methodology: Our study employs the Autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) over the time of 1972 to 2019. Findings: The empirical findings show that in the long-run impact of money supply has significant and positive on investment and other variables trade, foreign direct investment, gross domestic saving, services are also positively associated with the investment. While other variables interest rate and exchange rate negatively linked with investment. Empirical findings of the second econometric model show the core variable money supply has a significant and positive on inflation including other variables foreign direct investment, exchange rate, exports and government expenditures on education but other variables interest rate, gross domestic saving and agriculture output negatively linked with inflation. Implications: The study indicates that a stable monetary policy should be introduced to improve a country's economic development. Monetary policy should be used to build an agreeable environment of uncertainty that draws both domestic and outside investors to promote economic growth. Economic growth can be accomplished by encouraging efficient monetary policy steps for inflation stability and attractive interest rates.