A Dynamic Model for Predicting the Flowering Date Developed Using an Endodormancy Break Model and a Flower Bud Development Model in Japanese Pear

Abstract

A dynamic model to predict the flowering date of the Japanese pear (Pyrus pyrifolia Nakai), was developed using two models based on preparatory experiments: an endodormancy break model and a flower bud development model. The model was modified using data of the flowering date and temperature obtained from fields in a few regions in Japan. The flowering date in these regions for some years could be estimated accurately from the new dynamic model and only one set of parameters. The root mean square errors in the estimation is less than 2 days. © 1997, The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan. All rights reserved.