Expected impact quantification based on reliability assessment

Abstract

Currently, a lack of interpretation tools and methodologies hinders the ability to assess the performance of a single piece of equipment or a total system. Therefore, a reliability, availability and maintenance (RAM) analysis must be combined with a quantitative reliability impact analysis to interpret the actual performance and to identify bottlenecks and improvement opportunities. This paper proposes a novel methodology that uses RAM analysis to quantify the expected impact. The strengths of the failure-expected impact methodology include its ability to systematically and quantitatively assess the expected impact in terms of RAM indicators and the logical configuration of subsystems and individual equipment, which show the direct effects of each element on the total system. This proposed analysis complements plant modelling and analysis. Determining the operational effectiveness impact, as the final result of the computation process, enables the quantitative and unequivocal prioritization of the system elements by assessing the associated loss as a "production loss" regarding its unavailability and effect on the system process. The Chilean Copper Smelting Process study provides useful results for developing a hierarchization that enables an analysis of improvement actions that are aligned with the best opportunities.