Unemployment Duration and Migration in Mexico After the Financial Crisis

Abstract

This article examines structural breaks in the effect of the unemployment duration for the population of Mexico on the probability of migrating, both internal and internationally. Data from the National Survey of Occupation and Employment for 2007, 2008, and 2010 is used, and estimations are made from both binary and multinomial response models. Furthermore, a Chow- type test is used to estimate structural breaks in the unemployment duration effect after the financial crisis, and sensitivity tests are carried out using different specifications of the migration and unemployment duration variables. The results show that after the crisis the unemployment duration effects on the probability of migrating have been reduced, leading to restrictions on the free mobility of the labor factor.