Assessing future potentiality of technologies from the perspective of “imaginary future generations” – A case study of hydrothermal technology

Abstract

To guide technological innovation for sustainability, it is essential to develop a methodology for assessing the future potentiality of a technology from a long-term perspective. In this study, we propose an innovative method for assessing the future potentiality of technology from the perspective of imaginary future generations (IFGs) using a case study of hydrothermal technology and verify the effectiveness of the method. We conducted participatory deliberation experiments adopting the method and studied its effect on the formulation of scenarios for the adoption of hydrothermal technology in society in the year 2040, and on the assessment of the future potentiality and innovation of technology. Using deliberation experiments and questionnaires administered to the participants, we confirmed that IFGs had a significant effect on the adoption of technology in future scenarios and on the assessment results, with concomitant shifts in the relative weights of assessment indicators. We also found that the adoption of IFGs could lead to relativizing the value and positioning of a technology, and to shifting the requirements for the development and adoption of a technology. The results provide insights into the methodology to assess future potentiality of technologies and guide technology innovation from the viewpoint of futurability.