The Indian Inflation 2006–2016: An Econometric Investigation

Abstract

Recently several changes have been adopted in the conduct of monetary policy in India, like tracking CPI (Consumer Price Index), targeting inflation and so on. However, certain curious features of inflation may have some implications on the effectiveness of such measures. This article tries to explore the nature of inflation during the last decade. There are certain views about the nature of Indian inflation from the structuralist perspective. This article contributes to the literature by empirically testing those propositions and coming out with some significant policy implications. The article is based on monthly data from January 2006 to March 2016. By employing econometric techniques like cointegration and vector autoregression (VAR), the article tries to explain the movements of different components of WPI (Wholesale Price Index) and CPI inflation, both core and headline inflation and how they are related to macroeconomic policy variables. The empirical analyses focus on finding out the existence of co-movements among the inflation and macroeconomic variables, explaining the role of components like food and fuel price in driving CPI and WPI. The results have some important policy implications. First, the movements of WPI and CPI and their headline and core counterparts are not explained by same set of variables. Second, food inflation is not explained by agricultural output pointing to the insufficient increase in supply in agriculture. Third, the determinants of CPI headline and core inflation are not same. So, both of them should be tracked while formulating policies. The relationship among the components of inflation point to the possibility of some adjustment in demand from one set of goods to another, implying adjustments in terms of relative prices which needs further exploration. JEL: E31, E52, C32.