Forecast uncertainty-based performance degradation diagnosis of solar PV systems

Abstract

In this study, the authors are interested in estimating how much a PV system underperforms than expected byexploiting forecast uncertainty. For this, they first study a forecast accuracy-related forecast uncertainty metric using theensemble method based on the dropout technique, which is widely used in deep learning forecasting models. Given the forecastaccuracy-related uncertainty metric, the rationale of the authors' approach is that forecast accuracy is likely to decreasecompared to the normal case of similar uncertainty metric values if any performance degradation happens. It is because similaruncertainty metric values are likely to show similar forecast accuracy. Therefore, they generate a standard table by simulatingpossible performance degradation cases and conduct the performance degradation diagnosis by looking up the standard tablebased on the uncertainty metric. From the experiments, in the case of persistent degradation, they show that their approachestimates the performance degradation with the estimation error of around 1% while an uncertainty-unaware approach showsthe estimation error of up to 5%. In the case of temporal degradation, their approach shows the estimation error of around 3%,while the uncertainty-unaware approach does not show meaningful result.