Agent-Based Modelling: A Dynamic Scenario Planning Approach to Tourism PSS

Abstract

Creating simplified models of a system to better understand its workings has long been an effective method of solving complex problems (Bradley and Schaefer 1998; Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005). Models help to formalize theories and can be used to test hypotheses before committing to implementation (Holling 1978). Agent-based Modelling (ABM) is one branch of computerized simulation modelling that shows particular promise as a tool for planning support. Recent work has explored the application of ABM to study volatile gasoline market dynamics (Heppenstall et al. 2006), urban sprawl (Benenson and Torrens 2004), the conversion of Amazonian forest into farmland (Deadman et al. 2004) and economic development in response to climate change in the remote Canadian north (Berman et al. 2004). These research examples push the use of ABM from simplified theoretical models towards more detailed representations that incorporate real-world data (Alessa et al. 2006). These next generation examples of ABM have the potential to fill a role as a planning support system (PSS) within variety of planning and policy development areas.