Forescast of Short-Term Energy Production in Ecuador 50 MW Huascachaca Mines Wind Farm

Abstract

In Ecuador, the last 40 years, the energy matrix has been based exclusively on the production of electrical energy from fossil fuels and hydroelectric resources. The development of the electrical matrix is based on the accessibility to the different energy sources when there is an adequate level of availability; therefore, wind generation allows increasing the level of security in the supply of electrical energy. To determine the generation of Huascachaca mines wind farm of 50 MW, computational tools such as the Windographer for the modeling of the wind flow, energy production and also the IBM SPSS statistics software for the short-term prediction through the classic auto-regressive statistical models, like Box and Jenkins, will be used. Elements such as the orography and topography of the terrain such as the wind at the height of the hub of the wind turbines are necessary to carry out the complete simulation of the wind farm. The main objective is determining the energy production of wind farm, using the computational tool, characterizing the wind variable and applying a short-term methodology on the timescale, to support the use of the wind resource in the country.