Trend Analysis of Temperature Using CRU Data for Satluj River Basin

Abstract

Water is a precious natural gift to mankind. Smart cities can be build only if uninterrupted supply of water is available. Climate change causes variation in the availability of water. These variation are required to be reassessed in order to construct fully functional smart cities. Statistics reveal that consumption of water has increased threefolds in comparison to rate of increase in world population. If population is doubled, water demand will increase sixfold. Due to climate change, careful planning of water resources is necessary to meet the water demand. Hydrological cycle of particular region depends upon atmospheric temperature. Analysis of temperature trend using CRU data over basin will reflect the increase in temperature over past 113 years and change in precipitation pattern. Precipitation and runoff are affected by increase in temperature. It is therefore important for effective operation of water resources to predict stream flow considering climate change. Forecasting of stream flow helps decision makers to decide the scheduled release from reservoirs and hence improves the operational strategies. CRU data analysis is done to predict temperature trend and to assess the response of the basin to global warming. Using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, trend of annual surface air temperature of 56 stations is estimated. For annual maximum temperature, thirteen stations exhibited increasing trend, at twenty-six stations, decreasing trend is predicted and seventeen stations indicated zero trend. In case of annual minimum temperature, forty-two stations indicated increasing trend, nine stations reflected negative trend and five stations exhibited no trend. Analysis of last 113 years data for 56 stations predicted enhanced warming and change in precipitation pattern.