Climate Change Impacts on Non-human Primates: What Have We Modelled and What Do We Do Now?

Abstract

Climate change will be a key influence on primates in the twenty-first century, potentially exacerbating the effects of habitat loss and anthropogenic activities to drive vulnerable species closer to extinction. There are many ways to assess species' vulnerability to climate change, including modelling approaches of three main types: trait-based models, species distribution models, and mechanistic models. In this chapter, we survey the literature on climate change models as applied to primates, including the type(s) of model made and the predictions obtained. Most primate genera (62 of 80) have been subject to ecological modelling, though we found no future projections for lemurs and no palaeoclimate models for lorises, tarsiers, or platyrrhines. Maximum entropy methods predominate even though direct comparisons have shown that these tend to predict more severe habitat losses when used uncritically. Most of the taxa modelled to date have been predicted substantial habitat losses by 2100, with significant variation within each taxonomic group.