Probabilistic estimation of the energy consumption and performance of the lighting systems of road tunnels for investment decision making

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic model for supporting the process of decision making about the value of new lighting systems in existing road tunnels when some data and parameters are affected by uncertainty. The proposed model, which we have called Probabilistic Energy Screening of Tunnel (PrEST), accounts for both the technical performance and the economic objectives of the new lighting systems. The technical performance is described on an adequate (x, y) plane that was defined by two indices. The first index measured the consumption of electricity per kilometre of tunnel lengths; the second index measured the performance of the lighting systems per unit of illuminated area. The economic results were measured by the net present value of the savings and by the payback period. Both the terms account for initial capital investments, energy and maintenance costs. PrEST was applied to two real road tunnels in service in Italy showing that the statistics of the results can support a final decision in function of the business strategy.