Real-time prediction of the tropical cyclogenesis location over Bay of Bengal using global Forecast System (GFS)

Abstract

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has the responsibility of monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) including tropical cyclone (TC) and depressions; collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to CDs and preparation of best track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). A CD is classified based on the associated sustained surface wind (MSW) (IMD, 2003). The detailed classification over the NIO adopted by IMD is shown in Table 1. This classification has been used in this study for analyzing interannual variation of frequency and intensity of CDs over the NIO during satellite era (1961-2010).