Forest carbon accounting to leverage mitigation actions: implications for the Paris Agreement based on the analysis of countries’ decision under the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

Conserving carbon sinks is crucial to balancing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century. Here, we have explored the accounting of forest carbon sinks to leverage mitigation actions under the Paris Agreement (PA) by analyzing the relationships between countries’ national circumstances surrounding the forest sector and policy decisions under the Kyoto Protocol (KP) accounting rules. Cross-cutting literature analysis has indicated unique country circumstances affecting mitigation policies, including forest management (FM) election under Article 3.4 of the KP. Factor analysis indicated that the most significant factor influencing the election of FM was accounting advantage, including the forest cover ratio and FM cap per hectare. Therefore, countries’ policy decisions on mitigation actions in the forest sector may be driven by their interests according to various national circumstances. Although accounting rules have improved through the subsequent international negotiations, it has not yet been fully incentivized to maximize its mitigation potential from the forest sector. Future accounting should consider the trade-off between carbon sequestration through forest management and emission reductions through wood utilization. Visualizing mitigation benefits, including material and fuel substitutions for wood could be vital to incentivizing the forest sector to leverage mitigation actions under the PA.