Using Multi-Source Data to Assess the Hydrologic Alteration and Extremes under a Changing Environment in the Yalong River Basin

Abstract

Climate change and human activities are two important factors in the changing environment that affect the variability of the hydrological cycle and river regime in the Yalong River basin. This paper analyzed the hydrological alteration and extremes in the Yalong River basin based on multi-source satellite data, and projected the hydrological response under different future climate change scenarios using the CwatM hydrological model. The results show that: (1) The overall change in hydrological alteration at Tongzilin station was moderate during the period of 1998–2011 and severe during the period of 2012–2020. (2) Precipitation (average 781 mm/a) is the dominant factor of water cycle on a monthly scale, which can explain the temporal variability of runoff, evaporation, and terrestrial water storage, while terrestrial water storage is also simultaneously regulated by runoff and evaporation. (3) The GRACE data are comparable with regional water resource bulletins. The terrestrial water storage is mainly regulated by surface water (average 1062 × 108 m3), while the contribution of groundwater (average 298 × 108 m3) is relatively small. (4) The evaporation and runoff processes will intensify in the future due to climate warming and increasing precipitation (~10%), and terrestrial water storage will be depleted. The magnitude of change will increase with the enhancement of emission scenarios.