Extension of efficacy range for targeted malaria-elimination interventions due to spillover effects

Abstract

Malaria-elimination interventions aim to extinguish hotspots and prevent transmission to nearby areas. Here, we re-analyzed a cluster-randomized trial of reactive, focal interventions (chemoprevention using artemether–lumefantrine and/or indoor residual spraying with pirimiphos-methyl) delivered within 500 m of confirmed malaria index cases in Namibia to measure direct effects (among intervention recipients within 500 m) and spillover effects (among non-intervention recipients within 3 km) on incidence, prevalence and seroprevalence. There was no or weak evidence of direct effects, but the sample size of intervention recipients was small, limiting statistical power. There was the strongest evidence of spillover effects of combined chemoprevention and indoor residual spraying. Among non-recipients within 1 km of index cases, the combined intervention reduced malaria incidence by 43% (95% confidence interval, 20–59%). In analyses among non-recipients within 3 km of interventions, the combined intervention reduced infection prevalence by 79% (6–95%) and seroprevalence, which captures recent infections and has higher statistical power, by 34% (20–45%). Accounting for spillover effects increased the cost-effectiveness of the combined intervention by 42%. Targeting hotspots with combined chemoprevention and vector-control interventions can indirectly benefit non-recipients up to 3 km away.