Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on Mortgage Loans in the V41

Abstract

The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of selected macroeconomic indicators on mortgage loans in the V4. This group of countries was chosen be-cause they are close, both geographically and economically. This paper tries to find reasons for possible differences or similarities between the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The article analyses which of the macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, the unemployment rate, and mortgage interest rate) affect the volume of mortgage loans. The article uses the tools of time series econometrics, especially the ADF test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Error Correction Model (ECM), and the Granger causality test. It was found that there is a short-term relationship between the volume of mortgage loans and GDP for all countries, except Poland. Over a longer time series, how-ever, a long-term relationship exists for all of countries between the volume of mortgage loans and GDP, the mortgage interest rate, and the unemployment rate. The data used is based on a quarterly time series running from 2005Q1 to 2019Q4.