Pests Under Global Change — Meeting Your Future Landlords?

Abstract

[Introduction] The term global change embraces a range of natural andanthropogenic environmental changes that are occurringaround the world (Vitousek 1994), including changes inatmospheric composition, climate, land use and land cover,and the prevalence of non-indigenous species. This synthesisdescribes contemporary approaches to the assessmentof the vulnerability of ecosystems and human societiesto plant pests (arthropods, plant pathogens and weedsthat are injurious to plants) in relation to global change.Animal and human health have been covered elsewhere inrecent reviews (Sutherst 2001, 2004). While the detailedimpacts of global change on the status of pests will only beknown as events unfold, it is already clear that some pestswill be able to invade new areas and become increasinglyproblematic for the maintenance of biodiversity, the functioningof ecosystems and the profitability of crop production.Some pests which are already present but only occurin small areas, or at low densities may be able to exploit thechanging conditions by spreading more widely and reachingdamaging population densities. Our objective is to discussthese potential changes in pest status and to present aframework for effective adaptation.