Sea level rise impact modelling on small islands: Case study gili raja island of east Java

Abstract

Coastal regions and small islands are areas that will be adversely affected by the phenomenon of sea level rise globally. In general, Sea Level Rise (SLR) will result in coastal impacts as follows: Increased frequency and intensity of floods, changes in ocean currents and widespread intrusion of sea water. This research was conducted in Gili Raja Island of Sumenep Madura. Objectives of this research were to demonstrate the ability of combining remote sensing and GIS method to determine the impact of SLR on a small island and to model its scale using different scenario. GIS based run-up model were performed to estimate and predict the impact of SLR to the island's area. Three water level scenario (0.5 m, 1.0 m and 1.5 m) were applied. The results showed that in the first scenario 8.73% of the island was flooded by sea water, furthermore in two other scenario the flooded area was increase significantly (15.88% and 22.38%).