A review of south pacific tropical cyclones: Impacts of natural climate variability and climate change

Abstract

Impacts of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Island countries are of great significance. Now with the growing threats from human-induced climate change, the need for effective disaster risk management and adaptation strategies for these island countries is more important than before. In order to implement appropriate strategies, a comprehensive understanding of South Pacific tropical cyclone activity—and how it is likely to change as a result of human-induced climate change—is essential. While a number of past studies have examined various aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific basin, a review that consolidates those studies with new information is essential. In this chapter, we first examine tropical cyclone data quality for the South Pacific basin and then review the robustness of the relationship between South Pacific tropical cyclones and drivers of natural climate variability. Note that an understanding of the limitations of the data quality is important to determine the extent of natural climate variability and signatures—if any—of human-induced climate change on tropical cyclones. We then examine the influence of climate change on tropical cyclones using up-to-date historical observations and climate model projections.