Market Analysis and Forecasting as a Strategic Business Tool

Abstract

Pugh-Roberts has developed a number of simulation models to forecast the demand for products in specific markets. These models contain key feedback relationships which create growth, decline, and cycles in the market. They are unique in their integrated representation of macro-economic, micro-economic, and regulatory factors. Their broad scope makes them powerful enough to specifically show the relative importance of industry factors such as manufacturer pricing policies, inventory and production policies, capacity expansion policies, and the timing of new product introduction, in creating or magnifying market cycles. These models are highly valuable because, unlike simple statistical models, they explain the root causes of cyclical behavior and can therefore more accurately predict the timing and severity of market cycles.