Adaptation of modelling paradigms to the CIs interdependencies problem

Abstract

Research into critical infrastructure (CI) interdependencies is still immature. Such interdependencies have important consequences for crisis management. Owing to the complexity of this problem, computer modelling and simulation is perhaps the most efficient research approach. We present five facts that should be taken into account when modelling these interdependencies: 1) CIs are interdependent elements of a complex system. 2) Ever increasing interdependencies create new complexity. 3) Crises in CI are dynamically complex. 4) There is a need for a long term perspective. 5) Knowledge about CI is fragmented. These facts significantly condition the tools and methodologies to be used for modelling interdependencies, as well as the training and communication tools to transfer insights to crisis managers and policymakers. We analyze several modelling methodologies for applicability to CIs interdependencies problem. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.