Tuberculosis Case Finding in Benin, 2000–2014 and Beyond: A Retrospective Cohort and Time Series Study

Abstract

Objective . To determine any changes in tuberculosis epidemiology in the last 15 years in Benin, seasonal variations, and forecasted numbers of tuberculosis cases in the next five years. Materials and Methods . Retrospective cohort and time series study of all tuberculosis cases notified between 2000 and 2014. The “R” software version 3.2.1 (Institute for Statistics and Mathematics Vienna Austria) and the Box-Jenkins 1976 modeling approach were used for time series analysis. Results . Of 246943 presumptive cases, 54303 (22%) were diagnosed with tuberculosis. Annual notified case numbers increased, with the highest reported in 2011. New pulmonary bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis (NPBCT) represented 78% ± SD 2%. Retreatment cases decreased from 10% to 6% and new pulmonary clinically diagnosed cases increased from 2% to 8%. NPBCT notification rates decreased in males from 2012, in young people aged 15–34 years and in Borgou-Alibori region. There was a seasonal pattern in tuberculosis cases. Over 90% of NPBCT were HIV-tested with a stable HIV prevalence of 13%. The ARIMA best fit model predicted a decrease in tuberculosis cases finding in the next five years. Conclusion . Tuberculosis case notifications are predicted to decrease in the next five years if current passive case finding is used. Additional strategies are needed in the country.