The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering. For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity. The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution. The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters. Together with the Gutenberg-Richter's magnitude-frequency law with locationdependent b-values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity. Copyright © The Society of Geomagnetism and Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences (SGEPSS).
CITATION STYLE
Ogata, Y. (2011). Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity. Earth, Planets and Space, 63(3), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.5047/eps.2010.09.001
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